COMM 2014-LC15 Mortgage Trust — Moody’s affirms eight classes of COMM 2014-LC15

Rating Action: Moody’s affirms eight classes of COMM 2014-LC15Global Credit Research – 09 Feb 2021Approximately $601.5 million of structured securities affectedNew York, February 09, 2021 — Moody’s Investors Service, (“Moody’s”) has affirmed the ratings on eight classes in COMM 2014-LC15 Mortgage Trust, Commercial Mortgage Pass-Through Certificates as follows:Cl. A-SB, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)Cl. A-3, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)Cl. A-4, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)Cl. A-M, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)Cl. B, Affirmed Aa3 (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed Aa3 (sf)Cl. C, Affirmed A3 (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed A3 (sf)Cl. PEZ**, Affirmed A1 (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed A1 (sf)Cl. X-A*, Affirmed Aaa (sf); previously on Jun 12, 2019 Affirmed Aaa (sf)* Reflects interest-only classes** Reflects exchangeable classesRATINGS RATIONALEThe ratings on the P&I classes were affirmed due to their credit support and because the transaction’s key metrics, including Moody’s loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, Moody’s stressed debt service coverage ratio (DSCR) and the transaction’s Herfindahl Index (Herf), are within acceptable ranges.The rating on class PEZ was affirmed due to the credit quality of the referenced exchangeable classes.The coronavirus outbreak, the government measures put in place to contain it, and the weak global economic outlook continue to disrupt economies and credit markets across sectors and regions. Our analysis has considered the effect on the performance of commercial real estate from the current weak US economic activity and a gradual recovery for the coming months. Although an economic recovery is underway, it is tenuous and its continuation will be closely tied to containment of the virus. As a result, the degree of uncertainty around our forecasts is unusually high. Stress on commercial real estate properties will be most directly stemming from declines in hotel occupancies (particularly related to conference or other group attendance) and declines in foot traffic and sales for non-essential items at retail properties.We regard the coronavirus outbreak as a social risk under our ESG framework, given the substantial implications for public health and safety.Moody’s rating action reflects a base expected loss of 6.8% of the current pooled balance, compared to 3.5% at Moody’s last review. Moody’s base expected loss plus realized losses is now 6.1% of the original pooled balance, compared to 3.2% at the last review. Moody’s provides a current list of base expected losses for conduit and fusion CMBS transactions on moodys.com at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_SF215255.FACTORS THAT WOULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGSThe performance expectations for a given variable indicate Moody’s forward-looking view of the likely range of performance over the medium term. Performance that falls outside the given range can indicate that the collateral’s credit quality is stronger or weaker than Moody’s had previously expected.Factors that could lead to an upgrade of the ratings include a significant amount of loan paydowns or amortization, an increase in the pool’s share of defeasance or an improvement in pool performance.Factors that could lead to a downgrade of the ratings include a decline in the performance of the pool, loan concentration, an increase in realized and expected losses from specially serviced and troubled loans or interest shortfalls.METHODOLOGY UNDERLYING THE RATING ACTION The methodologies used in rating all classes except exchangeable classes and interest-only classes were “Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS” published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1244778 and “Moody’s Approach to Rating Large Loan and Single Asset/Single Borrower CMBS” published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1190579. The principal methodology used in rating exchangeable classes was “Moody’s Approach to Rating Repackaged Securities” published in June 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1230078. The methodologies used in rating interest-only classes were “Approach to Rating US and Canadian Conduit/Fusion CMBS” published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1244778, “Moody’s Approach to Rating Large Loan and Single Asset/Single Borrower CMBS” published in September 2020 and available at https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1190579, and “Moody’s Approach to Rating Structured Finance Interest-Only (IO) Securities” published in February 2019 and available at https://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBS_1111179. Please see the list of ratings at the top of this announcement to identify which classes are interest-only (indicated by the *) and exchangeable classes (indicated by the **). Alternatively, please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies. DEAL PERFORMANCEAs of the January 12, 2021 distribution date, the transaction’s aggregate certificate balance has decreased by 23% to $715.4 million from $927.5 million at securitization. The certificates are collateralized by 40 mortgage loans ranging in size from less than 1% to 11% of the pool, with the top ten loans (excluding defeasance) constituting 67% of the pool. Two loans, constituting 1% of the pool, have defeased and are secured by US government securities.Moody’s uses a variation of Herf to measure the diversity of loan sizes, where a higher number represents greater diversity. Loan concentration has an important bearing on potential rating volatility, including the risk of multiple notch downgrades under adverse circumstances. The credit neutral Herf score is 40. The pool has a Herf of 17, compared to 18 at Moody’s last review.As of the January 2021 remittance report, loans representing 87% were current, 1% were beyond their grace period but less than 30 days late, 1% were 60 days delinquent, 8% were 90+ days delinquent and 4% were foreclosed.Five loans, constituting 6.5% of the pool, are on the master servicer’s watchlist. The watchlist includes loans that meet certain portfolio review guidelines established as part of the CRE Finance Council (CREFC) monthly reporting package. As part of Moody’s ongoing monitoring of a transaction, the agency reviews the watchlist to assess which loans have material issues that could affect performance.Two loans have been liquidated from the pool (for an average loss severity of 1%). Six loans, constituting 12% of the pool, are currently in special servicing. Three of the specially serviced loans, representing 7% of the pool, have transferred to special servicing since March 2020.The largest specially serviced loan is the Marriott Downtown Hartford Loan ($40.5 — 5.7% of the pool), which is secured by a 409-room, full-service hotel located in Hartford, Connecticut. The hotel is currently operating under the Marriott flag, subject to a franchise agreement expiring in February 2029. The property is located next to the Connecticut Convention Center and has easy access to city center as well as surrounding highways. The loan transferred to special servicing in June 2020 due to payment default and is now past due for debt service payment by over 90 days. The September 2020 trailing twelve month (TTM) occupancy, ADR and RevPAR were 34.9%, $188.57 and $65.84, respectively, compared to 65.9%, $196.36 and $129.32 as of TTM September 2019. Property performance had improved from securitization through year end 2019. The loan transferred to special servicing in May 2020 for imminent default as a result of the coronavirus outbreak. The largest demand drivers for the property include group and meeting due to proximity to downtown. The borrower has submitted a request for relief, and the special servicer and borrower are currently negotiating potential debt relief options. The loan has amortized over 10% since securitization. Moody’s has included this loan in the conduit statistics.The second largest specially serviced loan is the Hilton Garden Inn Houston Loan ($18.6 million — 2.6% of the pooled balance), which is secured by a six-story, 171-room property located in Houston, Texas alongside Tomball Parkway. The loan transferred to the special servicing in December 2019 for imminent monetary default after performance declined sharply when the submarket lost Hewlett Packard, which served as a major corporate demand generator. Due to the property’s consistent decline in revenue, the negative effects of the oil and gas industry as well as the impacts of coronavirus outbreak, the borrower agreed to a consensual foreclosure which was completed in October 2020. The September 2020 TTM occupancy, ADR and RevPAR were 51.8%, $114.09 and $59.16, respectively, compared to 65.6%, $121.42 and $79.61 as of TTM September 2019. The loan has amortized over 10% since securitization.The third largest specially serviced loan is the Moss-Bauer Apartments Loan ($8.6 million — 1.2% of the pool), which is secured by a 28-unit apartment building located in New Orleans, Louisiana. The property includes 14 one-bedroom units, 13 two-bedroom units, a penthouse, and two ground-floor commercial spaces totaling 750 square feet (SF). The coronavirus outbreak has significantly impacted occupancy at the subject. The property was 29% occupied as of July 2020, compared to 100% in March 2019. The loan transferred to special servicing in March 2018 due to non-monetary default and remains over 90 days delinquent.The remaining three specially serviced loans are secured by one mall property which has been foreclosed on and two hotel loans that are over 60 days delinquent. Moody’s estimates an aggregate $23.5 million loss for four of the six specially serviced loans (55% expected loss on average).The credit risk of loans is determined primarily by two factors: 1) Moody’s assessment of the probability of default, which is largely driven by each loan’s DSCR, and 2) Moody’s assessment of the severity of loss upon a default, which is largely driven by each loan’s loan-to-value ratio, referred to as the Moody’s LTV or MLTV. As described in the CMBS methodology used to rate this transaction, we make various adjustments to the MLTV. We adjust the MLTV for each loan using a value that reflects capitalization (cap) rates that are between our sustainable cap rates and market cap rates. We also use an adjusted loan balance that reflects each loan’s amortization profile. The MLTV reported in this publication reflects the MLTV before the adjustments described in the methodology.Moody’s received full year 2019 operating results for 92% of the pool, and partial year 2020 operating results for 94% of the pool (excluding specially serviced and defeased loans). Moody’s weighted average conduit LTV is 99%, compared to 96% at Moody’s last review. Moody’s conduit component excludes loans with structured credit assessments, defeased and CTL loans, and specially serviced and troubled loans. Moody’s net cash flow (NCF) reflects a weighted average haircut of 23% to the most recently available net operating income (NOI). Moody’s value reflects a weighted average capitalization rate of 9.3%.Moody’s actual and stressed conduit DSCRs are 1.38X and 1.08X, respectively, compared to 1.44X and 1.09X at the last review. Moody’s actual DSCR is based on Moody’s NCF and the loan’s actual debt service. Moody’s stressed DSCR is based on Moody’s NCF and a 9.25% stress rate the agency applied to the loan balance.The top three conduit loans represent 30.2% of the pool balance. The largest loan is the One Kendall Square Loan ($79.3 million — 11.1% of the pool), which represents a pari passu portion of a $194 million senior mortgage loan. The loan is secured by a 610,000 SF office property located in Cambridge, Massachusetts. The property contains a mix of office, laboratory and retail space, and comprises the majority of a larger mixed-use complex which includes a movie theater and parking garage (not part of the loan collateral). The property has benefited from increased demand and subsequently higher rents generated from life science/research tenants seeking to have a presence in the Cambridge submarket. The property was 93% leased as of September 2020 compared to 98% in December 2019 and 94% in December 2018. Moody’s LTV and stressed DSCR are 79% and 1.21X, respectively, compared to 88% and 1.08X at the last review.The second largest loan is the AMC Portfolio Pool III Loan ($69.3 million — 9.7% of the pool), which is secured by two manufactured housing communities located in Boulder and Denver, Colorado with a total of 1,154 pads. The portfolio was 94% occupied as of September 2020, down from 99% in December 2019 and up from 93% at securitization. Performance has improved due to increase in revenue, however, this was off-set by rising operating expenses. Moody’s LTV and stressed DSCR are 101% and 0.95X, respectively, compared to 104% and 0.93X at the last review.The third largest loan is the WRS Retail Portfolio Loan ($67.2 million — 9.4% of the pool), which is secured by 11 Wal-Mart shadow anchored and Dollar Tree anchored retail properties and two outparcels located in Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina. The portfolio was 84% occupied as of September 2020, compared to 88% in December 2018, 82% at securitization . Moody’s LTV and stressed DSCR are 100% and 1.00X, respectively, compared to 103% and 0.98X at the last review.REGULATORY DISCLOSURESFor further specification of Moody’s key rating assumptions and sensitivity analysis, see the sections Methodology Assumptions and Sensitivity to Assumptions in the disclosure form. Moody’s Rating Symbols and Definitions can be found at: https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_79004.The analysis includes an assessment of collateral characteristics and performance to determine the expected collateral loss or a range of expected collateral losses or cash flows to the rated instruments. As a second step, Moody’s estimates expected collateral losses or cash flows using a quantitative tool that takes into account credit enhancement, loss allocation and other structural features, to derive the expected loss for each rated instrument.Moody’s did not use any stress scenario simulations in its analysis.For ratings issued on a program, series, category/class of debt or security this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series, category/class of debt, security or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody’s rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the credit rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular credit rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider’s credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides certain regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com.For any affected securities or rated entities receiving direct credit support from the primary entity(ies) of this credit rating action, and whose ratings may change as a result of this credit rating action, the associated regulatory disclosures will be those of the guarantor entity. Exceptions to this approach exist for the following disclosures, if applicable to jurisdiction: Ancillary Services, Disclosure to rated entity, Disclosure from rated entity.The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entity or its designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure.These ratings are solicited. Please refer to Moody’s Policy for Designating and Assigning Unsolicited Credit Ratings available on its website www.moodys.com.Regulatory disclosures contained in this press release apply to the credit rating and, if applicable, the related rating outlook or rating review.Moody’s general principles for assessing environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks in our credit analysis can be found at https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=PBC_1243406.At least one ESG consideration was material to the credit rating action(s) announced and described above.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody’s affiliates outside the EU and is endorsed by Moody’s Deutschland GmbH, An der Welle 5, Frankfurt am Main 60322, Germany, in accordance with Art.4 paragraph 3 of the Regulation (EC) No 1060/2009 on Credit Rating Agencies. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody’s office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.The Global Scale Credit Rating on this Credit Rating Announcement was issued by one of Moody’s affiliates outside the UK and is endorsed by Moody’s Investors Service Limited, One Canada Square, Canary Wharf, London E14 5FA under the law applicable to credit rating agencies in the UK. Further information on the UK endorsement status and on the Moody’s office that issued the credit rating is available on www.moodys.com.Please see www.moodys.com for any updates on changes to the lead rating analyst and to the Moody’s legal entity that has issued the rating.Please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for additional regulatory disclosures for each credit rating. Tulay Sangiray Analyst Structured Finance Group Moody’s Investors Service, Inc. 250 Greenwich Street New York, NY 10007 U.S.A. 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