Research Announcement:
Moody’s – Global business travel unlikely to
recover before 2024
London, March 24, 2021 —
» High risk that virtual meetings could replace some business travel
» Full-service airlines in advanced countries are likely to come under most pressure from slow
recovery
Airlines will suffer as the COVID-19 pandemic fuels global business travel uncertainty, with recovery
unlikely before 2024 as virtual meetings may replace travel, Moody’s Investors Service said in a
report published today.
Business travel is expected to recover slowly as workplaces gradually re-open and demand picks up,
but improving technology, company cost reductions and environmental concerns could put pressure
on business travel over the coming years.
“Global business travel is unlikely to make a full recovery before 2024, especially with the use of
virtual meetings as an ongoing substitute. Around 20%-25% of business travel involves meeting
people from within a company’s own organization – these trips are most at risk of being replaced,”
says Martin Hallmark, Senior Vice President at Moody’s Investors Service. “To offset the possible
negative impact, we expect airlines to manage their capacity and to benefit from efficiency savings
and cost cuts.”
Full-service carriers such as Delta Airlines, United Airlines, American Airlines, Lufthansa, and British
Airways will be most affected by the slow pick up in business travel. There will be different paces
of recovery for business travel, with stronger demand in large countries where there is substantial
domestic travel such as the US, Brazil, Australia, Russia and China.
Sectors with a lot of site-specific activities such as manufacturing, real estate and construction are
also likely to recover sooner and see faster growth in business travel after the pandemic, especially
in countries such as China, Japan and Germany.
Subscribers can access the report at:
http://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?
docid=PBC_1264553
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Martin Hallmark
Senior Vice President
Corporate Finance Group
Moody’s Investors Service Ltd.
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Richard Etheridge
Associate Managing Director
Corporate Finance Group
Moody’s Investors Service Ltd.
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